Rising seas may take heavy toll on N.C. beaches

Raleigh | Rising seas could wash away most of Southeastern North Carolina's public beaches by 2080, limiting recreational and fishing opportunities, and costing the regional economy $3.9 billion over the next 75 years, researchers said Wednesday.

The study also said that property losses tied to sea level rise - a result of global warming - in just four of the state's 20 coastal counties, including New Hanover County, could hit $6.9 billion.

Measuring the Impacts of Climate Change on North Carolina Coastal Resources is the title of the study conducted by Okmyung "Paul" Bin of East Carolina University, Chris Dumas of the University of North Carolina at Wilmington, Ben Poulter of Duke University and Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, and John Whitehead of Appalachian State University.

Researchers admit their report doesn't paint a pretty picture - especially since it's based on conservative sea-level-rise assumptions.

But they said they hope their study is used by policy-makers to better understand the economic impacts from the climate changes already shaping the coast and begin thinking about incorporating mitigation strategies into their long-term planning.

"It's not something that's going to happen overnight, but over several decades," said Dumas, an economist at UNCW. "But it is something we need to start thinking about, and we hope this report fills in one of the gaps in the literature out there on this issue."

By 2080 the study projects that 14 of Southeastern North Carolina's 17 public beaches could erode all the way to the road without preventative action, such as nourishment projects or seawalls.

Whitehead, an economist with Appalachian State, said the loss of beach width would mean a corresponding loss of beach recreational opportunities in those areas, significantly cutting into the amount of time and money visitors would spend.

The study estimated losses of $3.9 billion over the next 75 years, with the majority of that lost spending tied to beachgoers looking to swim or simply sunbathe on the sand.

"Shore anglers will be able to get off the beach and go on a pier, so those economic losses aren't as dramatic," Whitehead said. "But there aren't any good substitutes for these other beach recreational activities."

The erosion could be mitigated with nourishment projects, which already occur in New Hanover's three beach towns.

But Whitehead said a paucity of beach-compatible sand sources coupled with the rising costs of getting the material onto the beach could make a wide-scale nourishment strategy impractical.

Property losses along the coast due to sea-level rise also could be significant.

More to lose

Bin, an economist with ECU, said the construction of more and ever bigger homes along the coast coupled with surging property values has created greater financial vulnerability to rising sea levels.

New Hanover's residential property value loss, depending on the rate of sea level rise, could range up to $354 million.

In low-lying Dare County, the financial loss could range as high as $4.5 billion.

Bin cautioned that the figures only account for value loss tied to permanent inundation, not reduced home values tied to temporary flooding from storm surge or high tide events.

But it isn't just the immediate coastline that would feel the impacts of a rising and warming ocean.

Dumas said increased hurricane intensity tied to global warming could reduce economic output and seriously impact the state's agricultural and forestry sectors.

Since low-intensity storms, Category 3 or weaker, strike North Carolina quite frequently, he said even a mild uptick in their average strength could have significant economic impacts.

Gareth McGrath: 343-2384

gareth.mcgrath@starnewsonline.com